Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to 16N with axis near 39W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to 15N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 09N to 13N between 44W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 80W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama offshore waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 05N38W and then from 04N40W to 04N49W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 12W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N between 20W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m) west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms with likely gusty winds and rough seas are ongoing offshore Veracruz being supported by abundant moisture and mid-level divergence.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered by a 1026 mb high near 29N45W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m). The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where winds are gentle to moderate. Otherwise, a tropical wave with axis along 80W is supporting heavy showers offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing within this area of convection.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical Atlantic waters, extending from a 1026 mb high pressure near 29N45W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshores. The passage of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed between 45W and the Lesser Antilles with 7-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-8 ft seas are ongoing between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic offshores.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the middle of the week as the Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos

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