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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12W then continues to 07N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 05N25W and 03N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 26W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 18W and 26W.

Gulf Of America

The stationary front that had been over the Florida Straits has dissipated, leaving the basin dominated by surface ridging building in from the NE. Closest to the high, light winds and seas of 2 ft or less are present in the NE Gulf. In the SE basin, gentle E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are ongoing. Southerly return flow between the ridge and low pressure over Texas has increased to moderate speeds over the western Gulf, and seas have built to 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over much of the Gulf this weekend. Locally fresh E to NE winds are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and over the Campeche Bank each afternoon and night Sun into next week, as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and propagates westward. Looking ahead, fresh E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf on Mon as a cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States and progresses over the northwestern tropical Atlantic. Strong E winds and rough seas may develop through the Florida Straits Mon into early Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Convection that had been impacting waters near the coast of Central America has diurnally dissipated, leaving the basin convection-free. For the majority of the basin, fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Offshore Colombia, an evening altimeter pass showed a fairly broad area of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds within 120 nm of the coast, and these winds are likely generating rough seas that are extending west and approaching the coast of Panama. Conditions are more tranquil in the NW Caribbean, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas will occur offshore of northern Colombia through at least the middle of next week as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over much of the Caribbean this weekend. In the Atlantic waters, rough seas in E swell will continue this weekend before diminishing on Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba each night and morning Sun through next week. Looking ahead, widespread fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop over the central and western Caribbean early next week as a cold front stalls over the northwestern tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

Large N to NE swell in the central and eastern Atlantic has been slowly decaying tonight, and the area of very rough seas has diminished. There is still widespread rough seas impacting the entire basin E of 55W, as well as tropical Atlantic waters S of 20W adjacent to the Lesser Antilles. The highest seas, where locally 12 ft seas are occurring, are generally from 15N to 27N, E of 44W. The swell will continue to decay through the weekend, with rough seas mainly confined to waters E of 35W by Mon.

A weakening cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to 28N68W, where it becomes stationary and continues SW through the NW Bahamas. A trough extends southward along 72W from the front through the Turks and Caicos. Neither of these features are producing any sensible weather anymore, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft surrounding them. Farther east, the low pressure near 25N60W has opened to a trough that now extends along 58W from 24N to 30N. Scattered moderate convection is E of this trough, N of 28N and eastward to 50W. Fresh S winds are occurring in the vicinity of this convection.

For waters N of the Antilles to 22N, fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate. For the remainder of the basin E of the Antilles, and for the central and eastern Atlantic, generally fresh trades dominate. Seas in this region have been described in the initial paragraph of this section.

Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will prevail south of 22N this weekend. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic by early Mon, as a strong cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States. The front will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, supporting expanding strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas into the central basin. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 75W Tue through midweek. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas may be reinforced in the central waters east of 75W by the middle of next week as a new cold front moves through the region.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik